Author Topic: Klimatske promjene  (Read 64603 times)

Offline Rade

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #300 on: July 19, 2015, 21:59:09 »
Evo jednog zanimljivog istraživanja čiji rezultati mogu oraspoložiti ljubitelje hladnijeg vremena     :77:

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/mini-ice-age-coming-in-next-fifteen-years-new-model-of-the-suns-cycle-shows-10382400.html

Ne znam više šta je istina a šta ne... Zadnjih godina je bilo dosta prazne priče i sličnih najava... Lično bih više volio ovo nego da budu ovako vruća ljeta.

Offline Nikola

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #301 on: August 29, 2015, 13:11:40 »
Sudeci po grafikonima sledeci ciklus ce biti sa jos slabijom Suncevom aktivnoscu,sto ce dovesti do pada T





a sto se tice uopste klimatskog ciklusa na planeti vec smo na pragu glacijacije





ova ilustracija pokazuje prelaz izmedju zadnje glacijacije i interglacijalnog maksimuma,slijede periodi mili ledenih doba ali periodi toplih doba su sve hladniji,sto je normalno.Za par hiljada godina Zemlja ce biti u ledenom dobu.



Offline sanjin

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #302 on: August 29, 2015, 21:03:04 »
Dje su to vrsena mjerenja prije 400 hiljada godina? :32:


Offline Nikola

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #304 on: August 29, 2015, 23:09:50 »
Dje su to vrsena mjerenja prije 400 hiljada godina? :32:
Postoje vrlo efikasni i uobicajeni metodi odredjivanja starosti preko zemljista,fosila,leda itd.
Npr. sa greskom do dva miliona godina moze se podijeliti mezozoik na trijas,juru i kredu inace radi se o periodu od prije preko 250 miliona godina.
Konkretno za klimu rade se duboke busotine u ledu ili preko fosila i posebnim radioaktivnim izotopima(kiseonika,ugljenika,uranijuma...) kao i mjerenjem kolicine CO2 i drugih gasova moze se vrlo efikasno odrediti starost i klima.
Normalno sto se radi o starijem tj. mladjem periodu na planeti to tacnost opada.

https://www.boundless.com/biology/textbooks/boundless-biology-textbook/evolution-and-the-origin-of-species-18/evidence-of-evolution-129/carbon-dating-and-estimating-fossil-age-520-13098/

https://www.niwa.co.nz/climate/faq/how-do-we-determine-past-climate
« Last Edit: August 30, 2015, 08:56:38 by nikolA »

Offline milos555

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #305 on: September 14, 2015, 13:43:47 »
Nastavljaju se predviđanja o najtoplijim godinama u istoriji...

"Naredne dvije godine mogle bi biti najtoplije u istoriji naše planete, kažu istraživači Nacionalnog meteorološkog centra Velike Britanije.
Istraživanja pokazuju da na scenu stupa do sad najmoćniji El Ninjo na Pacifiku, koji bi mogao da zagrije cijeli svijet. S druge strane, ljeta u Evropi mogla bi postati nešto hladnija, u odnosu na ostatak planete".


http://www.vijesti.me/techno/metereolozi-pred-nama-su-dvije-vrele-godine-851228

Offline Nikola

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #306 on: November 29, 2015, 14:57:29 »
Ono sto je sigurno da Sunce ulazi u fazu mirovanja,da li ce to biti slicno Maunderovom minimumu ili ne to se vec ne zna ali ono sto je sigurno da ce od od 2020-2030. biti sa vrlo malo pjega u maksimumu tj. maksimum ce biti kao u normlanim okolnostima minimum.To ce dovesti do pada T ne nesto drasticno ali za 0.3-0.5c na globalnom nivou sto moze znacajno uticati na klimu,posebno na zime.
Holocenski maksimum je dostignut prije oko 8 hiljada godina kad je T bila za oko 1c visa od danasnje iako je od tada sve manja T to se jos uvijek ne osjeca.Na primjer isto kao ljeti,najduzi dan je 21. juna a najtoplije vrijeme je u julu i avgustu ili recimo u septembru ili oktobru je manja povrsina pod ledom nego u aprilu i maju.
Danas se osjecaju posljedice interglacijalnog maksimuma.Imamo tu srecu ili nesrecu da smo rodjeni u tom periodu,jer topli periodi na planeti traju kratko od 8-10 hiljada godina a hladniji(sa temperaturama nizim od danasnjih) traju oko 100 hiljada godina.

Offline Nikola

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #307 on: December 07, 2015, 01:12:01 »
Ovih dana je bilo polemike oko globalnog zagrijavanja i 97% naucnika se slozilo da na globalno zagrijavanje u ovom vijeku znacajno utice covjek.
Veliki sam protivnik teorija zavjere,pseudonauke i ostalih koji ne zele da prihvate realnost,ne sporim da je globalno zagrijavanje ocigledno,ali sam skeptik po pitanju da li u tolikoj mjeri utice covjek.Manje vise svako zna da covjek izgradnjom gradova i industrijom itekako utice lokalno na klimu.
Znam da Sunceva aktivnost i fenomeni u okeanu ne donose dugotrajne promjene klime,ali nisam upoznat sa sledecim konstatacijama:

1.Evidentno je da je nivo CO2 je po prvi put 1950. premasio istorijsku granicu i da se kolicina povecava,ali ispitivanja koja su vrsena o spoznaji u istoriji uzimamo iz leda,ne znam na koji nacin se ona danas uzimaju? Ako je to u gradskim ili industrijskim centrima onda to nije mjerodavno jer bi po pravilu to trebalo da se odradi na nekom terenu na kojeg nema direktog uticaja grada i industije tj. covjeka.Ukoliko se to tako mjerilo,onda je uticaj covjeka neminovan.

2.Znamo da nije ista T mjerena u Podgorici prije 100 godina i danas,jer se betonske povrsine sire i T je veca.To vazi i za svaki grad.Ne moze biti mjerodavno zakljuciti da covjek globalno utice na klimu ako stanice u gradovima svijeta pokazuju vecu T.Temperatura se mora mjeriti van uticaja grada i uporedjivati sa prosloscu,ako je tako radjeno onda je covjekov uticaj globalno neminovan.

Ovaj grafikon je prilicno mjerodavan ukoliko se od 1960. podaci prikupljaju pod direktim uticajem gradske i industrijske zone  :81:



Volio bih da saznam te informacije.


Offline Rade

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #308 on: January 08, 2016, 20:53:51 »
Nije vezano skroz za klimu, ali vjerujem da je većini sa ovog foruma zanimljivo. Ko ima vremena, neka pročita:

http://geroldblog.com/2015/04/11/fukushima-forever-the-pacific-ocean-is-dying/

Offline Nikola

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #309 on: January 11, 2016, 18:05:11 »
Volio bih da saznam te informacije.
Trazio sam odgovore na postavljeno pitanje i dosao do najlogicnijeg odgovora koji potvrdjuje vecina naucnika sto naravno podrzavam,a to misljenje bih zadrzao za sebe.

Offline Transmat

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #310 on: January 11, 2016, 20:01:12 »
Volio bih da saznam te informacije.
Trazio sam odgovore na postavljeno pitanje i dosao do najlogicnijeg odgovora koji potvrdjuje vecina naucnika sto naravno podrzavam,a to misljenje bih zadrzao za sebe.
Neka si mu rekao vala...    :64:  :102:

Offline Cirius

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #311 on: March 09, 2016, 14:11:01 »
Amerika bilježi najtopliju zimu u istoriji mjerenja. Ankoridž, glavni grad Aljaske, je bio po prvi put bez snijega krajem februara   :81:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/03/08/americas-year-without-a-winter-the-2015-2016-season-was-the-warmest-on-record/



Od svih sezona, zime bilježe najbrže zagrijavanje    :81:




~ ... must be lost to explore the unknown ~

Offline Bura

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #312 on: March 09, 2016, 21:06:00 »
Amerika bilježi najtopliju zimu u istoriji mjerenja. Ankoridž, glavni grad Aljaske, je bio po prvi put bez snijega krajem februara   :81:

Jedna mala, ali bitna ispravka. Glavni grad Aljaske nije Ankoridž već Džuno (Juneau).

_________________________________________________

Zanimljivo je to da ista zima kada su u par navrata, negdje skoro a negdje i oboreni pojedini zimski rekordi, ujedno bude i najtoplija u istoriji SAD-a.
Podsjetiću... Centar Njujorka je 24. januara mjerio drugu najveću visinu snijega u istoriji mjerenja i to 68cm (rekord je pola cm manja visina), dok je na njegovom aerodromu bila najviša ikada izmjerena visina od 78cm. Rekordi su bili oboreni i u Njuarku (Nju Džerzi), Baltimoru (Merilend) i Herisburgu (Pensilvanija).
Sjeveroistok SAD-a sredinom februara zahvatila je polarna vazdušna masa pa su tih dana mjerene neke od najnižih temperatura u istoriji pojedinih gradova (ipak rekorda nije bilo). Tako je 14. februara u Bostonu bilo -23°C sa subjektivnim osjećajem od -38°C, a najniža ikada izmjerena temperatura u ovom gradu je -28°C iz 1934. godine. U Njujorku je tog dana izmjereno -18°C.
Ipak, prosjek je prosjek, pa ovi kratkotrajni zimski ekstremi i nijesu mnogo uticali na srednju vrijednost.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 21:11:10 by Bura »
Bolje gram nafake no kilo mozga.

Offline Dusko

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Offline Cirius

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #314 on: August 26, 2016, 21:45:08 »
Neopravdano zapuštena tema u godini koja je poobaljivala tolike rekorde ... 2015. je bila najtoplija godina do danas, ali sva je prilika da rekord neće dugo trajati. Prvi mjeseci 2016. su bili više anomalija nego odstupanje, a i jul koji je za nama je najtopliji jul i ujedno najtopliji mjesec od kad se vrše mjerenja.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/july-makes-15-record-hot-months-in-a-row-20611

http://climate.nasa.gov/news/2479/nasa-analysis-finds-july-2016-is-warmest-on-record/

Ova ilustracija možda najbolje pokazuje period od ljeta 2015. do sad  :81:

~ ... must be lost to explore the unknown ~

Offline Niksic 3

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #315 on: February 19, 2017, 15:27:32 »
Pitanje za forumase.
Posto je Niksic sve do 1970 godine ima velike snjegovi,posle tih godina oslabi.
Dal na to ima utjecaj pravljene industrijskih centara,i povecanje grada,jer je tada Nk sa 14 hiljada skocio na preko 50 hiljada?

Offline Mađo

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #316 on: February 19, 2017, 17:44:37 »
Svi smo imali velike i što je bitnije redovne snjegove do '70 godine jer je taj period bio ladniji nego zadnje 30 ili 40 godina.

Ne, nikakvog efekta ne može biti po pitanju padanja snijega jeli Nikšić imao 14 ili 50 hiljada stanovnika. Ni vještačka jezera ne utiču nimalo. Dužem zadržavanju sniježnog pokrivača doprinosi,vjerova ili ne, zato što ima više zgrada,kuća i ostalih objekata nego da je neki prazan,neispunjen prostor.

Offline Niksic 3

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #317 on: February 19, 2017, 17:51:52 »
Svi smo imali velike i što je bitnije redovne snjegove do '70 godine jer je taj period bio ladniji nego zadnje 30 ili 40 godina.

Ne, nikakvog efekta ne može biti po pitanju padanja snijega jeli Nikšić imao 14 ili 50 hiljada stanovnika. Ni vještačka jezera ne utiču nimalo. Dužem zadržavanju sniježnog pokrivača doprinosi,vjerova ili ne, zato što ima više zgrada,kuća i ostalih objekata nego da je neki prazan,neispunjen prostor.
Tacno sam znao da ces mi ti odgovorit :03:
Hvala

Offline Niksic 3

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #318 on: July 17, 2017, 01:35:00 »
Nekad je hladnije doba bilo u prednosti,sad je toplije :03: Mislim da ce se sve to vratiti u normalu
https://youtu.be/8r-QPwBW15k

Offline Transmat

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #319 on: July 17, 2017, 14:49:50 »
ovo izgleda zalosno :(

Offline staracfoco

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #320 on: July 17, 2017, 16:49:29 »
Ovo izgleda tako da će ono što je bilo normalno postati anomalija.

Offline Niksic 3

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #321 on: July 17, 2017, 17:14:10 »
Ono sto znamo jeste da se klima mijenja,a da li ljudi imaju uticaj na to ne zna se.Mozda smo ipak posle hladnijeg doba dosli u toplije.
https://youtu.be/n21SGSgesmo

Offline Niksic 3

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #322 on: August 24, 2017, 14:50:11 »

Offline vanja

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JEDEM SNIJEG

Offline ZabrinutiFizicar

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Re: Klimatske promjene
« Reply #324 on: August 30, 2017, 11:09:31 »
Mislim da je za klimatske promene krivo elektromagnetno zagadjenje planete (u ovim istrazivanju merene su jonosferske pertrubacije iznad dalekovoda u Australiji i SAD, kasnije cu ostaviti i linkove za uticaj mobilne telefonije na ozonski omotac):

http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2007/02495/EGU2007-J-02495.pdf?PHPSESSID=e

This paper is related to the first in-situ observations of strong ionospheric perturbations
close to the VLF transmitter NWC in Australia. NWC is one of the most powerful
VLF transmitters in the world and it is located at a low L-shell value (L=1.49).
Waves and plasma parameters are recorded by the low orbiting satellite DEMETER.
Electrostatic waves from HF to ELF ranges are generated and strong turbulence appears.
Fluctuations of electron and ion densities are observed as well as increase of
temperature. The perturbations are well located to the geographic North of the transmitter
and cover a surface of ∼ 500,000 km2

. This area is centred at the altitude of the satellite (700 km) around the magnetic field line which has a foot at the location of the transmitter. This phenomenon is due to the electron and ion heating of the ionosphere
induced by the powerful transmitter VLF wave. A much smaller effect is also
observed in the Northern hemisphere at the conjugated location. This ionospheric perturbation
observed for the first time is in addition to the already known precipitation
of the energetic particles which interact with the VLF wave of the transmitter through
a cyclotron resonance mechanism. The particle precipitati on zone is located south of
the transmitter at a slightly larger L value (1.9)

Jos na ovu temu:
ftp://ftp.ingv.it/pro/terrasol/ADS_CV_Recent_Publications/ADS_pub_2012_2015/Geospace_perturbations_P&CE_2015.pdf

4.1.
Perturbations from Power Lines PLHR’s (Power Line Harmonic Radiation) are the ELF and VLF waves emitted by the power linesat the harmonics of 50 Hz (or 60 Hz in USA). But these lines are not alone to radiate harmonics.Direct observations of PLHR by satellites are rather rare (Parrot, 1995) and shown in few papers(indirect effects are more often reported). Non linear interactions between electrons and PLHR canparticipate in the precipitation of electrons from the slot region in the radiation belts, on the otherhand, main part of the PLHR energy dissipates in the lower ionosphere and modifies theionospheric currents. This problem now requires serious attention because the electrical powerconsumption is always increasing in the world.A systematic research on PLHR’s has been performed using all burst DEMETER data. From VLFspectrograms, it is easy to find at the satellite altitude, the spectral lines separated by 50 Hz in 17Europe and by 60 Hz in USA (Němec et al., 2007 and references therein). Examples of PLHR’shave been published by Parrot and Němec (2009) and the Fig. 8 shows one of these events.4.2. Perturbations from VLF TransmittersAt VLF frequencies between 10 and 20 kHz, the ground based transmitters are used for radionavigation and communications. Their ionospheric perturbations include: the triggering of newwaves, ionospheric heating, wave electron interactions, and particle precipitation. At HFfrequencies, the broadcasting stations utilize powerful transmitters which can heat the ionosphereand change the temperature and the density. All these wave dissipations in the ionosphere couldparticipate to the global warming of the Earth because the change in global temperature increasesthe number of natural lightning discharges in the atmosphere. Then the supplementary lightningdischarges produce more magnetospheric whistlers which, in turn, could produce heating andionization in the lower ionosphere.The ground-based VLF transmitters are mainly used for communications by the army. They emit atfixed frequencies and their waves are propagated and bouncing in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide.But the ionosphere is not regular and these waves can also cross the ionosphere and be observed bya satellite. DEMETER has shown that the most powerful transmitter NWC in Australia can perturband heat the ionosphere on a vast scale. The Fig. 9 shows an example of these ionosphericmodifications which are observed at the satellite altitude. The waves, which cross the ionosphereand propagate in the opposite hemisphere, can also perturb the particles of the radiation belts due towave-particle interaction as it has been studied by Sauvaud et al. (2008).Furthermore, there is a potential feedback mechanism because two different processes could beinvolved. First, lightning is a source of NOx, and NOx affects the concentration of ozone in theatmosphere which contributes to the greenhouse effect. Second, precipitation of energetic electrons 18by man-made waves may trigger other lightning discharges. It explains the importance of the studyof such man-made waves (Parrot and Zaslavski, 1996).It must be also noted that anomalous propagation of the navigation VLF transmitters' signals hasbeen detected before the occurrence of earthquakes when the epicenter is located between thetransmitter and the receiver (see for example, Molchanov et al. 2006 and Rozhnoi et al., 2009), aswell as unexpected anomalous pre-seismic transmission resulted in VHF radio waves (Fujiwara etal., 2004; Moriya et al. 2010).

Kratko pojasnjenje:

Website Joris Everaert http://www.livingplanet.be/globalchange.htm

The DEMETER satellite project (partly) from the Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement (LPCE) at the french National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) has the objective to investigate the ionospheric perturbations due to the seismic activity, and the global study of the Earth electromagnetic environment. Dr. Michel Parrot, the principal investigator of the DEMETER project, and others, have studied and published about the ionospheric effects of anthropogenic low frequency electromagnetic radiation from power lines and transmitters, and high frequency broadcasting stations (to some MHz frequencies). All the observations indicate that Power Line Harmonic Radiation (PLHR) influences the atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling. On one hand, non linear interactions between electrons and PLHR can participate in the precipitation of electrons from the slot region in the radiation belts, on the other hand, main part of the PLHR energy dissipates in the lower ionosphere and modifies the ionospheric currents. This problem now requires serious attention because the electrical power consumption is always increasing in the world. It was also found that the very low frequency fields from ground-based transmitters (used for radio-navigation and communications) can also have an influence. Their ionospheric perturbations include: the triggering of new waves, ionospheric heating, wave-electron interactions, and particle precipitation. At high frequencies (to some MHz but not in the GHz range), broadcasting stations utilise powerful transmitters which can also heat the ionosphere and change the temperature and the density. According to Dr. Parrot, all these wave dissipations in the ionosphere could participate to the global warming of the Earth because the change in global temperature increases the number of natural lightning discharges in the atmosphere. Then the supplementary lightning discharges produce more magnetospheric whistlers which could produce heating and ionization in the lower ionosphere. Furthermore, it is a feedback mechanism because two different processes could be involved. First, lightning is a source of NOx, and NOx affects the concentration of ozone in the atmosphere which contributes to the greenhouse effect. Second, precipitation of energetic electrons by man-made waves may trigger other lightning discharges. It explains the importance of the study of such man-made waves (see the links below for more information).
The higher frequency radiation (900 MHz and more) from cell phone use and cell phone transmission base stations, cannot directly interact with the ionosphere. But maybe this radiation could also result in higher global temperatures due to other effects/interactions in the atmosphere ? There was a news item claiming that a group of fifty scientists in Columbia have revealed that the explosive application of mobile phones (and other man-made electromagnetic sources) can contribute to global warming, but I haven't seen confirmation of that news item.

Treba imati u vidu i da globalno zagrevanje pokazuje upadljivu korelaciju ne samo sa prvim radio predajnicima (1910.) nego i sa generalnim pocetkom koriscenja naizmenicne struje:


[video=youtube_share;cXhZvyGtMrk]https://youtu.be/cXhZvyGtMrk?t=5m53s[/video]
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 11:18:38 by ZabrinutiFizicar »